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Short Course 6: Climate Extremes and Risk Analysis

This Course is specifically tailored to the needs of PhD students, postdocs and professional researchers in climatology, ecology, environmental sciences, geosciences, meteorology or hydrology. We assume a basic knowledge in calculus and statistics, the rest you will learn here. You get the required statistical tools and extensive hands-on training to become able to optimally analyse your data and answer the associated questions about the climate. You acquire the theoretical basis for understanding the tools and interpreting the results. You learn to determine the various sources of uncertainty in data, climate models and statistical estimation. A highlight of this course will be the provision of a new software for optimally estimating the heavy tails of a statistical distribution (risk analysis).

Climate case studies serve to illustrate the usefulness of the tools: how to make the most of your data by means of statistics—and how to publish it in a research paper. Examples include:

(1) Dynamics of the Pliocene Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (Mudelsee and Raymo 2005 Paleoceanography 20:PA4022)

(2) Paleohurricane risk during the past millennium from proxy series (Besonen et al. 2008 Geophysical Research Letters 35:L14705)

(3) Modelled river runoff and river floods during the past decades and centuries (Mudelsee et al. 2003 Nature 425:166)

The course instructor, Dr. Manfred Mudelsee, trained in physics, geology and statistics, has a long-standing expertise in teaching statistical methods to non-specialists.

The course consists of lectures and extensive hands-on training in computer tutorials. Data, software (including the commercial risk analysis software Caliza ™, the lecture as PDF, the statistical tools and a printed copy of the textbook (Mudelsee, 2014, Climate Time Series Analysis, 2nd edition, Springer, 454 pp) are included.


Date and Time: Sunday 2 September 2018, 9 am – 6 pm and Monday 3 September 2018, 9 am – 5 pm

Cost: 490 USD

Requirements: Participans should bring laptop with Windows OS (Windows XP, Windows 7, Windows 10, etc.), Mac users should install a Windows emulator prior to the course. Own data for analysis during the course, individual discussions.

Course Outline:

Day 1

  • Introduction (L, T)
  • Persistence Models (L, T)
  • Bootstrap Confidence Intervals (L)
  • Regression I (L, T)
  • Extreme Value Time Series, Part I (Data Types and Detection) (L)

Day 2

  • Extreme Value Time Series, Part II (Stationary and Nonstationary Models) (L)
  • Extreme Value Time Series, Parts I and II (T)
  • Extreme Value Time Series: Open Session (re-cap, joint analyses, individual discussions, certificate)

Lectures (L) and Tutorials (T)

Course Instructor:

Dr. Manfred Mudelsee, Climate Risk Analysis, Kreuzstrasse 27, Heckenbeck, 37581 Bad Gandersheim, Germany

+49 5563 9998140 (company) (academic)



Research Fields

  • Statistical Analysis of Climate Data
  • Mathematical Simulation Methods (Bootstrap, Monte Carlo)



since 10/2007                 Visiting/Research Scientist, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany

since 01/2005                 CEO and Founder, Climate Risk Analysis

03/2011–06/2011           Guest Scientist, MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Germany

09/2003–08/2004           Visiting Scholar, Department of Earth Sciences, Boston University, USA

09/1999­–09/2007           Research Scientist, Institute of Meteorology, University of Leipzig, Germany

09/1997–08/1999           Postdoc, Institute of Mathematics and Statistics,

University of Kent, Canterbury, United Kingdom

04/1996–08/1997           Research Fellow, Geological Institute, University of Kiel, Germany

03/1996                           PhD in Geology, University of Kiel, Germany

06/1990                           Diploma in Physics, University of Heidelberg, Germany


Publications—Books (Selection)

Mudelsee M (in preparation) Statistical Analysis of Climate Extremes. Cambridge University Press, New York.

Mudelsee M (2014) Climate Time Series Analysis: Classical Statistical and Bootstrap Methods. Second Edition. Springer, Cham. xxxii + 454 pp.


Publications—Peer-Reviewed Papers (Google Scholar, 19 August 2017: 76 papers, 7818 citations, h-index 38)

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